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On February 24th, 2022, Vladimir Putin declared war against Ukraine under the guise of "a special military operation," purportedly aimed at restoring order and combating alleged Neo-Nazis. One of the main reasons for the war was Ukraine's attempt to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). If Ukraine had joined NATO, Russia could have faced a direct threat to its national security because of the US and European weapons entering Ukraine that border with Russia. As two years have passed since the outbreak of the war, this article will review factors that may affect the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024.
War of Attrition.
The Russia-Ukraine war is a war of attrition. In other words, as the war is prolonged, funds, weapons, and human resources are consumed. This type of war is especially disadvantageous to Ukraine since two of the major aid packages for 2024 are on hold. In the case of the US, political impasse in congress has led to uncertainty of 61-billion-dollar worth of aid. Similarly, Hungary's opposition has hindered the European Union's efforts to provide €50 billion in aid. In addition, the EU's plan of contributing 1 million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine by March 2024 is unlikely to be executed. As both Russia and Ukraine are having significant financial and military losses, the war is expected to continue as a war of attrition that has no winners.
Ukraine War Fatigue
Ukraine War Fatigue is a phenomenon in which the public's support and empathy towards Ukraine is decreasing because of the prolonged war. As support for Ukraine declined, Slovakia stopped its aid plan and there's a possibility that the Netherlands may not provide F-16 fighter planes as previously promised. According to a U.S. public opinion poll, as of November 2023, 41% of respondents believe that the aid to Ukraine is excessive. The result of this poll is a significant increase from 24% in the August 2022 survey and 29% in the June 2023 survey. In addition, eight countries out of 27 EU countries oppose aid to Ukraine showing that the Ukraine War Fatigue is a global phenomenon.
The Russia-Ukraine war not only brings national losses to Russia and Ukraine themselves but also causes fatigue to other countries involved in the war. Above all, the most important fact to discuss is that precious lives are being taken and people in each country have lost their homes because of this long war. It's a time to genuinely consider and decide whether winning and losing the war or the protection of its people and pursuing the country's future is a priority.
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